The International House of Bacon

Today, Barack Obama’s slated to make a speech on race, religion, etc. It’s an interesting situation Obama’s put himself in with this - on one hand, it’s a speech he generally has to make, as the “bury it on a Friday and hope the media ignores it enough where the whole thing passes for now” didn’t work all that well, and daily tracking polls have not been favorable toward Obama since the story hit the mainstream late Thursday. In a way, he’s stuck in a political corner with no way out except this.

The speech can’t be anything but problematic, however - granted, if there’s anyone in politics today who can pull off the rhetorical flourish necessary to convince people of what they need to hear regarding this whole Wright flap, it’s Barack Obama, but the stark problem is that Obama doesn’t seem to get what the problem is:

“I am going to be talking about not just Reverend Wright, but just the larger issue of race in this campaign, which has ramped up over the last couple of weeks,” Obama told reporters after a town hall meeting here. According to aides, he was up until 3 a.m. Monday working on his remarks.

…

“The statements that were the source of controversy from Reverend Wright were wrong, and I strongly condemn them,” the Illinois senator reiterated today. However, Obama added, “I think the caricature that is being painted of him is not accurate. And so part of what I’ll do tomorrow is to talk a little bit about how some of these issues are perceived from within the black church community, for example, which I think views this very differently.”

Ignore for the moment that he’s still sticking with the “statements that were the source of controversy line” and let’s breakthis down simply: Obama feels that this is ultimately not a problem with Wright (although, now that he’s been pressed on it a bit, it’s kind of a problem), but that it’s more of a racial and religious community misunderstanding.

Now, on the surface, you know, that might be true: it’s been put out there that Wright probably isn’t that controversial in comparison to some others in his position, for instance, It may not necessarily be Obama’s fault on all counts on that one, especially if (and I can’t find the link on this currently) it’s actually true that Obama’s reasoning for joining this Church was more to better connect with the community he was working with. But the surface isn’t what’s persisting in this story.

1) Obama’s lost the trust of a lot of people. I can see a few eyes rolling on this one, but this is important to note - it’s very hard for Obama to position himself the way he has been when he’s got this albatross around his neck. That people can’t see through his policies or rhetoric is one thing, but having a guy who says we deserved 9/11 on your advisory council isn’t going to fly with undecided voters, frankly. It takes the shine off the whole image, and that’s not one you can easily recover from.

2) People’s problem with this isn’t race. Well, okay, to be fair, SOME people see it as a race problem, but the stories I’m reading are not looking at it from a race angle, or even a religious angle - they see it quite simply as the ravings of a non-mainstream pastor making remarks that are usually relegated to the lunatic fringe. Barack Obama decided that, not only did this guy with the lunatic fringe commentary inspire him (because we all know he likely heard it at some point over the last 20 years), but he was influential enough to be a political adviser and serve on his campaign. When it comes down to an undecided voter pulling the lever, a guy who occasionally panders to the extreme religious elements is still going to be superior to the guy who’s taking those loons and taking their advice…

3) …which leads to the third problem, the lack of understanding of context. I see this get compared to Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, et al. I had one person ask me about this in context to the Ron Paul Newsletters. The difference with the former is that Falwell and Robertson aren’t taken seriously by anyone except their core constituencies, a very small but vocal minority that occasionally get a hearing from mainstream candidates but have little in the way of sway with anyone on the right other than themselves, compared to Wright’s role in the Obama campaign. Furthermore, it’s widely understood that Falwell and Robertson aren’t taken seriously by a whole lot of people - even the most religious person you know probably doesn’t think Hurricane Katrina was God’s retribution for allowing gays to marry, while we’re supposed to understand that Wright’s statements are somewhat moderate in comparison to some other preachers? Really?

The Ron Paul Newsletter controversy is probably closer to this situation, except that Ron Paul was never going to win the nomination and more people were voting for him either because of his stance on the war or as part of the broader “revolution” rather than actually thinking he had a chance in hell of sniffing the Presidency. That certainly doesn’t excuse him from associating with the Lew Rockwells and Alex Joneses of the world, but no one was assuming they’d play a role in his never-gonna-happen Presidency either. But Wright?

At the core of it, it comes back to what I posted about yesterday - judgment. Obama, for the moment, is not showing that he’s really one to pass his own judgment test. Will his speech today change that if he starts in on trying to lecture people about race and black churches and how we should simply let statements like that go because of their own experiences? Maybe for the Obama true believers, but people don’t want to hear how Wright may be justified (mainly because they know it generally isn’t true), they want to hear Barack Obama say that he was completely wrong and those sort of statements aren’t tolerable under any circumstances. If he does that, I’ll frankly be shocked because direct statements that may bother a constituency he wants to win over aren’t Obama’s style.

I’m looking forward to reading the speech, in any regard. It’ll be a defining moment of this campaign, I just hope for the right reasons.

EDIT: Full text of the speech here, thoughts to come.