President - John McCain over Barack Obama: No, I wasn’t a fan of the last four years, either. Why? Not the war, not the political posturing, but the government spending, the government interference, and the lack of a consistent, coherent domestic policy. In terms of what we’re going to get in the next President, neither McCain or Obama have significant answers to deal with those issues, but the utter naiveté and incoherence of a possible Obama Presidency should turn anyone off. Yet the mantra of change and the mistaken beliefs of what’s actually happened over the last eight years have seem to taken over any real true discussion of the issues on either side. This isn’t 2004, where we had a pretty lousy President but a defining issue that drew a clear line - this time, Iraq is off the table and yet many are looking at that as a key issue still. What’s left, then? An untenable energy policy? An unsustainable spending plan? A tax plan that will harm the economy by Obama’s own admission and will increase your taxes? And yes, it will - if the Bush tax cuts expire and you pay federal taxes, you’ll see an increase with no guarantee that Obama’s preferred tax credits are anything you’ll qualify for. This is where the Obama candidacy falls apart - the details.
If this election were a referendum on honesty, we’d all be forced to vote “none of the above.” I’m pretty sure we can all agree on that. But if you want actual change - not the hopey snake oil kind that Obama’s been peddling - McCain’s the guy you want in there. His voting record is more moderate, his reputation for reaching across the aisle well-known, and his ability to get things done in the face of what appear to be impossible political circumstances legendary. More importantly, no one can doubt his commitment to what he believes is right. This is not some knock on Obama’s patriotism or anything like that, but a knock on Obama’s judgment - when a person so blatantly makes decisions based not on what he believes is right, but what appears to be politically tenable or desirable (see: Iraq, FISA, public financing for campaigns), that’s not real change, that’s the same thing you’ve been complaining about for the last 8 years. Obama reminds me of the exploitation filmmakers that I spend so much time researching - sure, you get to see naked people in their natural habitat, but you’ll have to sit through an uncompelling frame reel of native people to get there. If you really think you’re going to get what you’re voting for, I’m not sure what to say.
I’m damning McCain with faint praise here. My reason for voting for him is singular - Sarah Palin. It’s a shame that the campaign foolishly allowed the media to define her before she got the chance, because she’s a dynamic, intelligent, and capable politician who, if there’s any justice in the world, should have a long career ahead of her. She’s still a politician at heart - anyone who gets to this level ultimately is - but when I say she’s “change I can believe in,” I mean it because it’s true - she walks the walk where the head of the Democratic ticket is merely talking it. But here’s the only pitch I can give you in a time where I simply didn’t have the personal mental energy to make the pitch for the last few months - McCain has actually been someone who’s stood for change repeatedly. Often, you’ve liked the change, often not. But McCain will be up against a Democratic Congress, and that’s a situation he absolutely relishes. In a term where Iraq won’t matter, universal health care isn’t on the table, and the Court really truly isn’t in the balance (let’s be blunt - I’d rather not see the three liberal seats filled with clones of their predecessors, but a Democratic Congress shouldn’t let the opposite happen and there are only two rock-solid anti-Roe votes in the conservative wing anyway), where do we go?
If you’re “voting for change” Obama-style, you’re doing it because you want to see things get done. Does Obama give you that confidence? More importantly, are you truly confident that the Obama platform, whether you agree with it or not, is one that’s best for the country under the current circumstances? Are you really confident he has it in him, when he didn’t even have it in him to do it while he’s had power, when he didn’t have it in him to stick to his plans on the campaign trail? The parallels between 2008 and 1932 are really scary to me at this point, and we know how that turned out. Let’s not fall into the same trap.
As Americans, we deserve better than Barack Obama. It’s that simple for me. Maybe his opponent is far from optimal. Maybe your guy got bounced out in the primaries. Maybe your favorite politicians never run. Maybe you’ve never wanted to vote before this year. In any regard, if you refuse to give a third party your vote, then consider going with McCain. This is important enough to me where I’m voting for a major party ticket for the first time ever. I was once a card carrying member of the Libertarian Party. Go figure - it’s that important.
Polls as of Sunday night put Obama up anywhere from +5 to +16 in New Hampshire with significant overweighting of Democrats. Internals for the campaigns appear to be as such where both McCain and Obama spent time here this weekend. My vote might actually matter on this one.
US Senate - John Sununu over Jeanne Shaheen: John Sununu has been one of my favorite Senators since he was elected. Again, imperfect, but he’s principled and energetic, and stands for the right things economically, which is a big deal for me. Jeanne Shaheen, on the other hand, was the former New Hampshire governor who increased taxes, fees, and spending up here in ways that were completely unnecessary and antithetical to the attitude up here. I’ll be honest - I want Sununu to win this, and I’ve done what I can to make that happen, but you could also make the argument that he didn’t deserve to get in the first time, so I’m of two minds about the possible loss for Sununu. I think he’s more politically deserving, but karma is a harsh mistress.
Polls as of Sunday night say Shaheen +8, again with significant overweighting of Democrats. My gut calls it for Shaheen, but if McCain turns out the vote as well as he’s known to do up here, who knows.
New Hampshire Governor - Joe Kenney over John Lynch: The only good thing I can significantly say about Kenney is that he’s not a governor who drove the state into a $250m budget deficit, signed a smoking ban, floated a seatbelt law, and signed various tax hikes in otherwise individual and business friendly New Hampshire. Unfortunately, Joe Kenney’s campaign has been absolutely pathetic, and he’s nothing more than a token opponent for Lynch to destroy. I’ll vote for Kenney because he’s not Lynch - hardly a ringing endorsement, but there you have it.
The most recent poll I’ve seen had Lynch beating Kenney 65-14. Worse, that’s the best showing I’ve seen Kenney get yet. This is probably the only sure thing we have going up here.
United States House of Representatives: NH-1 - Jeb Bradley over Carol Shea-Porter: The best I can say for Bradley is that he got swept out in the 2006 Republican purge, and was one of the few who truly didn’t deserve it. If you look at Shea-Porter’s “achievements” as our representative, it’s stunning how completely contradictory it is to basic New Hampshire ideals. That I only moved up here 18 months ago and appear to “get it” more than Shea-Porter does is fairly damning. Her worst position by far is her apparent support of the Employee Free Choice Act, which removes the requirement for a secret ballot for unionization, but to highlight that alone fails to even begin talking about her robotic party line stances on taxes, health care, and the war. She’s among the worst American politics has to offer period, and Bradley deserves to get back in based on that alone.
The latest local poll I’ve seen has a statistical dead heat, Shea-Porter +3 on a 5.5% margin of error, with Bradley closing the gap in particular. This poll is also among the same overweighting of Democrats, so I’m very confident about a Bradley victory on this.
State Representatives - Keith Murphy, Rich Tomasso, Dick Martson: One libertarian conservative, one actual Libertarian, one standard Republican. We can vote for eight, but I’m not 100% comfortable with re-electing any of them, since all they’ve done is carry water for John Lynch. George Katsiantonis, Democrat, is one of my current Representatives, and he doesn’t offend me that much, but he’s still in there and should go on principle. On his vote, however, I reserve the right to change my mind.
I had to laugh at the ballot questions in Massachusetts, and I figured I’d chime in anyway since I really wish I could vote on the first two ballot questions:
Question 1 - YES to End the State Income Tax: This is the second coming of a ballot question that first appeared in 2002 and somehow got 45% of the vote. This time, they’re organized, and this time the idea is better - move the income tax from 5.3% to 2.65% in 2009, and then eliminate the individual income tax outright in 2010. The income tax represents roughly 39% of the state’s budget, meaning that essential services would not have to be cut and there would still be more than $18b in revenues to spend.
It’s funny to see who is most against this bill - the same people claiming that the middle class need the tax breaks. Meanwhile, this could result in more than $2000 a year for the middle class in money they’re not sending to Beacon Hill for god knows what. The reality is that, like the income tax decrease Massachusetts voters approved in the 1990s, there’s no chance of the legislature actually allowing this to go through as presented. One can vote for this knowing that, while at the same time sending a message to the state government that the Massachusetts situation is untenable tax wise. Up here in New Hampshire, the tax situation (no income no sales) is often referred to as the “New Hampshire Advantage.” Massachusetts could use an advantage of its own.
Question 2 - YES to Decriminalizing an Ounce or Less of Marijuana: Frankly, this is what I call “a good start.” The bill ain’t perfect in a lot of ways, but the simple act of becoming yet another state to begin the process of normalizing drug policy in this country is something any sensible human being should be able to support. The best news is that polling suggests significant support for the measure, but this is Massachusetts we’re talking about.
And one more that may not, in fact, matter to anyone electorally:
California Proposition 8 - NO Eliminating the Right to Same-Sex Marriage: I don’t know exactly how this is set up as a law (for instance, , but I know this much - while putting people’s rights to a vote may be a little backwards to some, it is the only way to truly make acceptance the norm. For all the complaining conservatives can do about California, this would be the perfect opportunity to see some democratic action toward making the law more equitable for all. More importantly, this leaves the law open - it does not put something into the statute while democratically affirming the right to marry whom you want. Another “good start,” but one with much deeper implications. If you can vote in California, do the right thing.
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My final comment on all of this? Get informed, and then get voting. It’s that simple. Just do it.